Our Mission is to help People and Clients understand World Macro dynamics with high level coherent insights to World Markets, both in terms of risk and opportunity.
Our Values are based on robust work ethics, high standards with quality deliveries, high level thinking processes and suitability, coherence, accountability, respect, trust, independence, risk taking, freedom of speech, determination, business acumen based on world class relevant knowledge, teamwork, and Integrity.
Who We Are
We are a knowledge-driven boutique, with a relentless forward looking focus on world macro conditions. We specialize in independent high level analysis. Our aim is to be free of groupthink.
We believe that the world economy is going through an unusual phase. We look at risk and opportunity in all of their aspects. Risks evolve over time as do opportunities. Specifically, systemic risk usually builds up while markets most often tend to ignore what they don’t understand. We focus on insight for the benefit of the balance sheet. Risk and opportunities can be better managed without groupthink.
We define groupthink as a process that involves all market participants who dynamically act, react, think, and pause in unison as a herd by basing their actions of all types in shared knowledge and by prioritizing them within the scope of the average boundaries of a common thinking with different behavioral decision biases. As such, groupthink is a dynamic compact that labels contrarian to the average or outliers to those ideas, thoughts, or actions that are rare or labeled as difficult to happen, which indeed are not within the crowd direction. This process may have had been labeled in the past as market psychology or herd mentality; however, these later are static characteristics. Groupthink is a dynamic, and perhaps, a silent process that can last decades or more. Further, it usually adds to both extremes; systemic risks as well as large positive opportunities. Again, we find that one key differentiation factor is that groupthink is indeed a dynamic compact, which can behave randomly, especially during fragmented or rare extreme events. In parallel, denial is usually reinforced ex-ante by the avoidance of alternative options, regardless whether they could be good or bad, but many times that denial responds to biases and psychological patterns of fear.
One of our main focus is on our Clients’ Fiduciary Duty.
We believe that most models are incomplete. We believe all aspects of risk count, not just those which are currently modeled. We believe that balance sheets need to be protected from groupthink, especially given that markets are not infallible. We provide high level insight to enable better decision making. We look at what is happening at system level and turn it into modeling and investment insights.
We focus on several key specific topics and related drivers, which are: Systemic Risk, Tail Risk, Markets inability to price them, Groupthink or what we called Business-as-Usual Bias, Modeling weaknesses, Crisis Balance Sheet Hedging, and how they interact with and threaten the Fiduciary Duty of Clients provided these specific risks. Another core area is Balance Sheet coherence.
Following the 2008 crisis, we discovered that there was a gap and a need in the market for coherent macro driven analysis. Therefore, we decided to support People and Clients by training and equipping them with system aware insights that are independent of groupthink. We strive to help People and Clients understand how opportunities and risks develop and to support them to construct strategic, tactical, and unconventional knowledge readiness, aiming to prepare them for potential upcoming scenarios whatever happens in world markets.
We are relentlessly focused on risk and opportunity. Following simplicity and a focused hands-on approach, we developed the following insightful high quality services based on our experience.
We decided to offer coherent training, knowledge products, content, and system aware insights beyond what we consider to be market consistent groupthink.
We anticipate risk. Our focus are on the structural, political, and corporate factors determining the individual decisions that across markets, asset classes, and geographies comprise the financial system. On this analytical process we strive to prioritize in-depth analysis into:
- Balance sheet priority risk detection/response.
- Markets’ inability to price tail risks.
- Business opportunities beyond market groupthink.
- Alternatives to bond investment.
- Early warnings and high-risk asset diagnosis given markets uncertainties.
- Suitable hedges, timing, and re-allocation
- Tail and volatility risk hedging and liquidity assessments.
- Tactical investment analysis and allocation scenarios in compliance with regulations.
- Long-term plan re-assessment analysis based on tactical hedges.
Our insightful high quality services address the key gaps in markets and are delivered in the following formats:
- Quality Content, Knowledge Products, and Analytical Work.
- Focused online and offline Training.
- Hands-on Consulting.
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